I rarely comment on geopolitical events, except that I got sucked into getting updated and reading political stuff ever since France had this good-looking guy as their El Presidente! You know what I found out, the handsome Monsieur Macron is very pro-European. Which bodes well for the dysfunctional European Union! He will be in a good partnership with Angela Merkel of Germany, the undisputed EU leader, which brings me to what I have observed.
Ever since Britain decided to leave the European Union, everything’s been crazy in that country. Yes, that Brexit pushed Britain into the sea of unknown. Since then, everyone’s been asking, what will be the consequences for Britain economically and what will be their place in the world?
Yesterday, I was just watching this video on YouTube about the world’s most powerful passports and the US and UK beat them all because both have about 174 countries with no visa. Is it the end of the free movement of Brits?
And then, enter Trump.
During the campaign, Trump pledged that economic nationalism will be the hallmark of his trade policy. He said he would protect the borders from countries stealing American businesses and destroying jobs. Soon after his election, he withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, announced that he would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and that he will penalize US companies that move their businesses abroad with taxes. That’s when the Business Process Outsourcing in the Philippines got rattled.
But you see, here’s what I found out.
According to what I read, the reason for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US is because of automation, improved efficiency and productivity growth and not because of globalization or other countries stealing businesses and employment in the US. The number of Americans working in factories has steadily declined since the 1960’s! So you see the problem of incorrectly blaming world trade as the culprit of the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US, pushes the easy solution of protectionism! The problem with protectionism is that – other countries can do it against the US too!
So while Britain has a lot of soul-searching to do to figure out where the hell they’re headed, and the European Union doing a lot of housework with all of their economic and migration dysfunctionalities, what I notice is that, as the United States pull back, China pushes forward!
First, they decided to experiment with capitalism! They worked so hard at it that their economy will soon be the world’s largest.
Second, China created the world’s next World Bank and called it AIIB, short for Asia’s Infrastructure and Investment Bank. According to them, they’re not competing with the World Bank or the Asian Development Bank because Asia has a massive infrastructure funding gap!
Next, when Trump abandoned Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) where he could have set the tone for global trade, China stepped up and revived the ancient Silk Road that linked China with the rest of Asia and Europe. China invited Asian and European leaders to join them in their China’s Belt and Road Initiative, actually assuming a global economic leadership.
And you know where these two countries are headed, right?
Ahhh! These are just my thoughts.